The man, the myth, the Ma-kun: A preview of Masahiro Tanaka, future MLB ace

Masahiro Tanaka is going to cost a small fortune. For the price Tanaka will likely cost, you could buy an unnecessarily large and fancy mansion. You could be over 1/4 of the way to sending a robot to Mars. You could certainly retire and never worry about money again. Or, you could acquire a Japanese baseball player for five years. Tanaka will certainly be expensive, but will he be worth it? The spectrum of 100 million dollar Japanese baseball players has only two, polar opposite data points. Will Tanaka be closer to the disappointing Daisuke Matsuzaka? Or closer to the currently electrifying Yu Darvish? The true answer remains to be seen. Luckily for all of us, it will be seen eventually, as the 24 year old plans on making a move to the MLB within a few seasons. Regardless, I’m here to save everyone some agony and answer the question right now. He will be as good as Darvish, or close to it. He will be worlds better than Matsuzaka. He will be an MLB ace, and he will be worth every penny. Here is why:

The Stuff

In Japan, Tanaka is a man among boys. In a world filled with control artists, he features a devastating slider that can reach velocities some other players can only touch with their fastball. In addition to a mid to high 80s slider, Tanaka has a four seam fastball that sits in the 90-93 MPH range, and can touch 96. Along with those, weapons, he has an 84-88 splitter, and a two seam fastball. Oh, and he also controls these weapons better than almost every player in the NPB. But, how do these weapons compare to those mentioned above; Darvish and Matsuzaka?

When compared to Darvish, the stuff is similar. Darvish throws more pitches than Tanaka does, but the pure stuff is relatively equal. Darvish sits in the 91-94 range, topping out at 97. His main secondary weapon is a low 80s slurve. However, he also throws a two seam fastball, cutter, two curveballs, a splitter, and a changeup. Additionally, Darvish pitches from the stretch almost exclusively, making him very difficult to steal on. In contrast, Tanaka has been criticized for his lack of ability to pitch from the stretch and hold runners. So, in pure stuff, Darvish holds a slight edge.

Matsuzaka is fairly similar to the other two in terms of pure stuff. He throws a four seam fastball that sits from 90-94, topping out at 97. In addition, he throws a low 90s two seam fastball, a cutter in the high 80s, a slurve in the low 80s, and a changeup. Matsuzaka throws more pitches than Tanaka does, but he lacks a true out pitch to dominate hitters. Tanaka has a dominant slider, in addition to velocity. Edge to Tanaka here.

The Numbers

Tanaka’s numbers are nothing short of eye popping. Last season, Tanaka threw 173 innings, to the tune of a 1.87 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9. And the previous season, he was even better. In 2010, he had a 1.27 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 0.3 HR/9. He doesn’t walk anyone, he strikes out a bunch, he doesn’t allow home runs, and he doesn’t allow hits. His K/BB ratios the last two years are 8.93 and 8.89. His numbers are spectacular, especially for someone as young as he is. However, raw numbers don’t always tell the whole story of how he will play in the MLB. Luckily, I have a projection for that sort of thing. I project Tanaka for a K/9 of 9, a BB/9 of 3.3, and an xFIP (using MLB 2012 league average home run rates and a constant of 3.1) of 3.68. That is all star caliber production, and he absolutely blows away the current field in terms of projections.

Darvish put up video game numbers as well when he was in Japan. Darvish in his last season in the NPB had a 1.44 ERA, with a 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9. His previous season he had a 1.78 ERA, with a 9.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9. His K/BB ratios were 7.67 and 4.72. Darvish struck out more than Tanaka does, but his walk rates weren’t nearly as good. Tanaka has K/BB ratios that are just otherworldly. And we all know Darvish was a great pitcher his rookie season, and is only getting better. By the same projection system, Darvish projected for 9.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 3.79 xFIP. His projections are very near those of Tanaka. But who is better? I give the edge to Tanaka here. His walk rates are incredible. He might not have quite the strikeout stuff than Darvish has, but he does a much better job of controlling his. Plus, Darvish currently plays in a huge hitters park, which will suppress his value some.

This is where Daisuke falls behind a bit. He had excellent NPB numbers, but not as good as Darvish or Tanaka. In his last NPB season, Matsuzaka had a 2.13 ERA, with a 9.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9. In his previous year, he had a 2.30 ERA, with a 9.5 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9. His K/BB ratios were 5.89, and 4.61. He just was not on the same level as the other two. In terms of his projections, he projected for 8.9 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 3.92 xFIP. Daisuke is clearly inferior when compared to Darvish or Tanaka.

The Verdict

Will Tanaka’s numbers remain strong like Darvish? Or take a flop, like Matsuzaka? He has the potential to the better than either of them. Darvish has the better repertoire, but Tanaka has the better numbers. An interesting note is that both Darvish and Matsuzaka had their career seasons immediately prior to earning an MLB contract. Tanaka has already had two seasons comparable to those or better. Additionally, Matsuzaka had some control issues in Japan. Darvish had some control issues in the MLB. Tanaka has better control than either of them. I hesitate to say that Tanaka will be better than Darvish. I consider them at approximately the same level: among the best to ever pitch in the NPB, and elite in the MLB. In the wake of Darvish’s success, Masahiro Tanaka will certainly be paid like a star. And he will play like one too.

Future MLB Prospects – Hitters

This is a list and short evaluation of the players I think have a decent shot at becoming impact players in the MLB. It consists of two sections, elite hitters in their prime, and young hitters who have a decent projection and room to grow (minimum projected wOBA of .275). I only take into account hitting. Fielding would have to be scouted additionally. Also, nobody knows if any of these players would actually want to go to the MLB if and when their contracts expire. They are just players I would keep an eye on for if I were an MLB team. The numbers given are their projections.

Note: There is no super elite and young, Ichiro level talent in the NPB right now. I’m talking about players who could potentially be solid starters and role players in the MLB. I don’t think you will find a superstar bat right now from Japan.

Elite prime age NPB hitters

You won’t find the likes Shinnosuke Abe here, because while he is a stud with the bat, he’s getting a little long in the tooth (almost 34). At least, a little long in the tooth for MLB teams to consider giving him a tempting offer. The oldest player I have in this section is Takashi Toritani at 32.

Nobuhiro Matsuda, IF, 29 – .282/.328/.492, .339 wOBA

Matsuda is a beast with the bat, as I’ve written about him before. He plays primarily third base, and is a double and triple hitting machine. His walk rate leaves something to be desired, and his strikeout rate isn’t great, though it has improved this year. However, he give you very good power, decent home runs and excellent doubles and triples, with some pretty good speed. Additionally, his defense appears to be solid, at least. Since third base has been a relatively weak position in the MLB recently, he could provide excellent value if given an opportunity. Plus, at age 29, he is at what should be his physical peak for a few more years. As far as past players I’ve projected, his .339 wOBA puts him right up there with Hideki Matsui and Kosuke Fukudome, who both had some pretty good seasons in the MLB. Hideki Matsui isn’t a bat comp in several ways. In the MLB, Matsui had some decent home run power, and some seasons of very good doubles power. Matsuda doesn’t quite have the walking ability that Matsui did, but he could provide similar power. I’m sure most teams wouldn’t complain to have a lesser OBP Matsui, who could field better and play a more premium position. If he ever made the jump.

Dae-Ho Lee, 1B, 30 – .277/.341/.436, .327 wOBA

Lee is one of my favorite players. He might not have the body to play in the MLB, but he has hit everywhere he has gone. As you can read in my other post, Lee put up video game numbers in Korea as he broke the world record for consecutive games with a home run, and won the Septuple Crown in 2010 (leading in BA, HR, RBI, R, OBP, SLG%, and H). He moved to the NPB this past season, and was one of the better hitters in his rookie season in Japan. Additionally, he won the home run derby in the NPB this past year, and has a history of great success in international competition. Lee is a power hitter, mostly. He gives you a decent average, and a decent walk rate. His strikeout rate is great, and he has quite good power numbers. The main thing working against him is that he is a first baseman. Lee could be a pretty good hitter. But to be a first baseman in the MLB, you have to be a great hitter. But who knows? He could adjust to the MLB this year, and destroy it and the World Baseball Classic if things go right. He would be a free agent next season. I’m excited to watch him in the WBC this year.

Takeya Nakamura, 3B, 29 – .242/.322/.452, .325 wOBA

I was hesitant to put Nakamura on this list. As I’ve mentioned before, he is a rather rotund figure, and I think that would scare most teams off. He is a pure power hitter. He gives you little average, a decent walk rate, and projects to strike out at a rate similar to Wily Mo Pena. Combine the strikeout problems with his body type, and I can’t see him going to the MLB. He would have the same problem as Lee above him, where he would have to play first base in the MLB. However, the slight power edge he has on Lee is more than given up in his strikeout rates and contact ability. Plus, Lee was an NPB rookie, while Nakamura has been around for a bit. Maybe he has a monster year and somebody decides to try to whip him into shape, but I doubt it.

Takashi Toritani, SS, 32 – .279/.356/.403, .319 wOBA

I love Toritani. He’s a little bit old, but he was an international free agent this year and will be again next year. His walk rates are just fantastic. When you couple that level of on base percentage with decent contact ability, not horrible power, and strong defense, you’ve got a pretty valuable player. Even if it’s only for a year or two due to his age, I think Toritani could be a steal. Plus, he had a down year last season. If he bounces back from that, it would push his projections even higher. I think he compares favorable to the Athletics’ Hiroyuki Nakajima, except for the age. However, if teams think his recent problems are due to age, then they should stay away. But for now, there are rumblings that he could be had fairly cheaply. I think he could give you a few seasons of a pretty good bat and a great on base percentage at either shortstop or second base. I see him as a slightly better Akinori Iwamura.

Hisayoshi Chono, OF, 28 – .281/.341/.400, .314 wOBA

The youngest of the elite NPB hitters, Chono has only been in the NPB for three seasons. In those seasons, he has shown fairly good all around hitting ability. He plays in a park that inflates home runs, but that’s okay because his home run numbers are just okay anyway. He gives you solid performance in all areas. In the MLB, I see him as a decent average, decent doubles power, double digit home runs, a decent walk rate, and a pretty good strikeout rate. Plus, he’s pretty young, and inexperienced, and he could easily grow some. Think os someone like a (far) lesser version of Hunter Pence, who does nothing exceptionally but everything well. I would like to see a bit more power out of Chono, especially given the park he plays in, but I think he could be a decent hitter. The problem is that he would likely have to play a corner outfield position. Unless you’re aggressive in projecting improvement (which I’m not since he got worse since the previous season) I can’t see Chono holding down a starting gig for very long. Of course, if he’s a very good defender that could change. He would be an excellent fourth outfielder, though.

Yoshio Itoi, OF, 31 – .276/.353/.382, .313 wOBA

Itoi is extremely similar to Chono, except older and a little worse. However, Itoi can play center field, and is regarded as a pretty good defender. Other than that, he’s similar to Chono with the bat. Pretty good at everything, but a little worse than Chono. Decent average and doubles power, not very good home run totals, pretty good walk rate and strikeout rate. Also similar to Chono, his numbers declined from the previous season, which is concerning. He should be an international free agent next season. If that’s the case, I would see him as a solid fourth outfielder. I wouldn’t give him a starting job unless you think he would be great in center. I don’t think he will hit enough to start, but I think he could still be a valuable player in a reserve role.

Young Prospects

For the most part, these players wouldn’t be very good hitters in the MLB right now. But, they would be able to hold their own. Plus, they’re young and have a lot of room to grow. These are players to keep an eye on for the future, either as an MLB team, or to watch some of them become stars in the NPB.

Ryosuke Hirata, OF, 24 – .253/.309/.421, .306 wOBA

Hirata had a fairly poor season last year with the bat. He needs to work on his plate discipline. However, of not is that he had a poor season with the bat in a huge pitchers park. He hit for pretty decent power, made all the more impressive playing in that stadium. He was the only player for his team other than Tony Blanco to hit double digit home runs. Plus, Hirata did it in only 269 at bats. He won’t be anything right now until he learns some contact ability, but the power is impressive. He may never become a huge star in the NPB since his main attribute is power in a stadium that saps power more than any other, but he could grow and provide good value for an MLB or NPB team. He has a long way to go, but has potential.

Sho Nakata, UT, 23 – .249/.295/.421, .304 wOBA

Immediately behind Hirata is a very similar young player in Sho Nakata. Just like Hirata, Nakata needs to work on his contact abilities and plate discipline, but has great power. He’s also a year younger. However, Nakata does not play in a stadium that suppresses his power, so he will likely become a huge star in the NPB. He was chosen to play in this year’s World Baseball Classic. Also, Nakata has played many positions in the infield and outfield so far in his career. I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing, or means he can’t field very well. Nonetheless, just like Hirata, he has youth and impressive power on his side.

Hayato Sakamoto, SS, 24 – .273/.313/.397, .301 wOBA

Sakamoto is already a young player on the rise. He had a down year in 2011, but an excellent season this past year. He was among the league leaders in many offensive categories this past season, though he did play in an offensive park with the Giants. He is a little overshadowed by playing with both Shinnosuke Abe and Hisayoshi Chono, but there no doubt he is in line to be the next big Giants star. He doesn’t have huge power, but is solid in pretty much every area. He is helped by his park, but if he puts up another season similar to last year, look for him to shoot up the projections. Plus, he’s only 24 years old, and plays shortstop. He was also chosen for the WBC team. He needs to walk a little more, but he’s a rising young player at a premium position who makes it easy to dream on.

Katsuya Kakunaka, OF, 25 – .276/.318/.372, .296 wOBA

Kakunaka is a little older than the other players, but he had a breakout year with the bat his past season. He doesn’t strike out much, and he hits a good amount of doubles, but he never hits home runs or walks very much. He needs to improve in his plate discipline if he’s going to make something of himself in the MLB. He also made the WBC team. With his lack of power, he’s going to need to be great in terms of contact ability and on base percentage. Plus, it would help if he played center field, I’m not sure if he can. He took a big step forward last year, and he’s going to need to take another if he is to rise among the ranks of the NPB elite.

Takahiro Okada, 1B/OF, 25 – .254/.302/.382, .295 wOBA

Okada probably won’t become much. He’s a solid NPB player with the bat, but he has no exceptional tool. Plus, he is a first baseman/corner outfield. Those are the positions where you need to hit the most. He would have to take a massive step forward to be an exciting prospect. He’s got youth on his side still, but at 25 he is going to need to learn to walk more, strike out less, and hit for more power if he’s going to be great. Basically, he would need wholesale improvement.

Hideto Asamura, IF, 22 – .265/.310/.393, .290 wOBA

Asamura is very young, and plays around the infield. However, he hasn’t hit super well to date, and his numbers actually got worse this past season. He rarely strikes out, but otherwise doesn’t do anything exceptionally well. He does everything else decently though, and plays in a park that suppresses offense a bit. He would need to make major strides. Though, he’s 22 years old. He’s got a lot of time to figure it out, and his early returns are promising.

Shota Dobayashi – IF, 21 – .231/.296/.376, .287 wOBA

Dobayashi was a rookie last season for Hiroshima. He showed some impressive power for his youth, but his strikeout rates were just awful. In addition, his contact abilities were lacking, and his walk rates were decent at best. But, as mentioned, his power was pretty good, especially for a rookie. He has a lot of work he needs to do, especially cutting down on strikeouts. But he’s only 21 years old (younger than this author, frustratingly) and has plenty of time to figure his game out. The talent is there.

Yoshihiro Maru, OF, 23 – .243/.315/.364, .285 wOBA

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, IF, 21 – .229/.295/.368, .282 wOBA

Shogo Akiyama, OF, 24 – .262/.299/.379, .279 wOBA

All three of these players are decent young talents who would need to take major steps forward to be great. Maru has pretty good walk rates, Tsutsugo is very young and has pretty good power, though it’s been declining with playing time, and Akiyama hits for decent average and improved this past year, despite being a little older. Any of these players could become pretty good hitters with some improvement, especially Tsutstugo due to his youth and better raw tools.

Projections and notes for Japan’s World Baseball Classic hitters

Roster and projections:

Projections are how I would expect the player to perform in the MLB, if given the opportunity. Rosters are from Baseball Reference.

Shinnosuke Abe, C, 33 – .297/.364/.460, .344 wOBA

Ryoji Aikawa, C, 36 – .245/.293/.295, .252 wOBA

Ginjiro Sumitani, C, 25 – .220/.244/.270, .205 wOBA

Yuichi Honda, 2B, 28 – .278/.319/.349, .277 wOBA

Hirokazu Ibata, 2B/SS, 37 – .264/.313/.311, .262 wOBA

Nobuhiro Matsuda, IF, 29 – .282/.328/.492, .339 wOBA

Kazuo Matsui, IF, 37 – .268/.298/.407, .301 wOBA

Hayato Sakamoto, SS, 24 – .273/.313/.397, .301 wOBA

Takashi Toritani, SS, 31 – .279/.356/.403, .319 wOBA

Hisayoshi Chono, OF, 28 – .281/.341/.400, .314 wOBA

Atsunori Inaba, 1B/OF, 40 – .266/.305/.395, .294 wOBA

Yoshio Itoi, OF, 31 – .276/.353/.382, .313 wOBA

Katsuya Kakunaka, OF, 25 – .276/.318/.372, .296 wOBA

Sho Nakata, UT, 23 – .249/.295/.421, .304 wOBA

Seiichi Uchikawa, 1B/OF, 30 – .305/.337/.416, .321 wOBA

I’m not going to try to guess how this team might do. Japan has historically dominated this event. I’m just interested in seeing who might do well in the MLB, if they come over. They have good infielders.

Players of note:

Shinnosuke Abe is a stud. It’s a good thing, too, since the other Japanese catchers on the roster are not very good. Nobuhiro Matsuda is also an excellent hitter. These two will be fun to watch.

Kaz Matsui is still playing in Japan, and playing pretty well. His MLB career might not have been illustrious, but I’m sure people remember him some, for good reasons or bad.

Prospects of note:

Nobuhiro Matsuda is a monster of a hitter, and fairly young. It’s unlikely he forgoes his Japanese fame to play in the MLB, but if he does, he could be one of the best Japanese hitters to ever make the jump.

Hayato Sakamoto, Katsuya Kakunaka, and Sho Nakata are all interesting to keep an eye on due to their youth. They all put up pretty decent projected lines in their youth. Sakamoto has an overall solid line. Nakata has very impressive projected power, plays a whole bunch of positions, and is only 23 years old. He is definitely one to keep an eye on for the future.

Takashi Toritani is a good shortstop, and has great on base numbers. Additionally, he could have been had by an MLB team this past season. I’ve written about him before, and he could be a good acquisition by a team. Yoshio Itoi is in a similar boat. He has impressive translated on base numbers, and could be a solid hitter from the outfield. Seiichi Uchikawa is another solid projected hitter, and of a similar age where they could all could come to the MLB if they wanted to. All three of these players could be solid hitters, with Toritani and Itoi having very good on base numbers. It will be interesting to watch them in the WBC.

Hisayoshi Chono is fairly young, and a good hitter. His power might not be as prodigious as it seems, since he plays in a hitters park, but he’s still a very good overall hitter. Plus, he’s only 28 years old, so he is worth keeping an eye on as well.

Notable omissions:

Of my projections, these are the most highly rated players not to make the team. Takeya Nakamura projects to be an .800+ OPS player. Nobuhiko Matsunaka and Kazuhiro Wada are other highly projected hitters to not be playing on the WBC team. I am not sure why these players didn’t make it, but they are the most notable omissions.

(Note: Dae-Ho Lee has a very interesting bat, and will be an exciting player to watch. He plays in the NPB, but will play for the South Korean team in the WBC.)

A review of the top projected players, 6-10

Part one can be found here, http://nomprojections.com/2013/02/11/review1

In this series I will do my best to provide background information on some of the higher projected hitters. Just so people can know a little background of the players, and whether to look for them in the MLB in the future or not. This part will review numbers 6-10.

6. Takeya Nakamura, 3B, 29, Seibu Lions -

Nakamura is known as one of Japan’s premier power hitters. In the 2011 season, he hit an impressive 48 home runs, in the first season with the new ball. This past season, he led the league again with 27 home runs. However, he strikes out a lot, and traditionally has very low batting averages (.255 career, .232 last season). He does walk at a decent clip. So, his main tool is power, but he projects to strike out at a similar rate to Wily Mo Pena. Additionally, those home run totals were put up in a park that is quite friendly to right handed power hitters. Additionally, his figure should be mentioned. His nickname is Okawari-kun, roughly “Mr. Seconds”, for his rather rotund figure. The MLB has seen many players with power and not much else try and fail (Wily Mo was mentioned in slot #5). A mostly one dimensional player with a bad body that strikes out too much? I’m going to disagree with the projections here. Even if 2011 Okawari-kun showed up, and his power could translate with enough contact ability, I just don’t think an MLB team would touch him.

7. Nobuhiko Matsunaka, LF/DH, 39, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks -

Matsunaka has had a long and distinguished career in Japanese baseball. His career has included a Triple Crown, two Pacific League MVP awards, 8 All Star selections, a Golden Glove, two Olympics, and a World Baseball Classic gold medal. Obviously, he is too old to be a prospect in the MLB at this point. He has been a power hitter his whole career. In his prime he routinely hit for averages well above .300, and slugged above .600 a few times. Additionally, his plat disclipline was nothing short of ridiculous. He almost always walked more than he struck out, including an insane season where he had 102 walks to just 37 strikeouts. He had 5 seasons of an OBP above .400, and 4 seasons with an OPS over 1.000. He has seen his playing time dwindle in his old age, but still had an impressive 2011 partial season before tailing off last year. He may be well past his prime at this point, but Matsunaka could have been one of the, if not the, best Japanese hitting imports ever. He may not have been a very good fielder, but I think he could have outplayed Matsui. IT would be interesting to see what he would have been projected for in his prime. Maybe I will do a post in the future with things like that.

8. Seiichi Uchikawa, 1B/OF, 30, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks -

Uchikawa has long been a solidly above average hitter in the NPB, but he has stepped his game up the previous few seasons. His best season came in 2011, where he won Pacific League MVP, batting .338 with very good double and home run rates in only 114 games. What is most impressive about his MVP season and very good follow up campaign in 2012 is that he did it post ball change, in a suppressed offensive environment, while moving away from the friendly confines of Yokohama. As far as potential MLB factors are concerned, he is mostly a singles hitter, with some double power. He will maintain a pretty high average, a consistent .300+ hitter. He doesn’t have the most power in the world, but it’s passable. He doesn’t walk very often, but he also doesn’t strike out often. I don’t think he is particularly fast. His numbers suggest average speed at best. That would be a concern for a mostly singles hitter. Also, his fielding ability has never been renowned. He could be an around league average hitter. But, considering he would have to be put at a corner outfield or infield spot, he probably wouldn’t hit enough to justify one of those positions. Teams generally like big hitters in those positions, and Uchikawa would be more solid, and probably would end up below average for those positions. He would be a very good fourth outfielder. However, all of this is rendered moot, as he still has two years left on his deal with the Hawks. It’s unlikely he ever comes to the MLB, since he is already 30. If he did, I wouldn’t expect great things.

9. Kazuhiro Wada, OF, 40, Chunichi Dragons -

At 40, Wada is still a very solid player. His peak is generally seen as 2003-2005, where he had some very good seasons with the bat and did exceptionally well in the 2004 Japan Series and 2004 Olympics. However, some of his strongest NPB seasons have come in his later years. In 2010, he had a .437 (!) on base percentage, coupled with a .624 slugging percentage. And he did it in possibly the largest pitcher’s park in league in the Nagoya Dome. Since then, his power as dropped off, as has the whole league’s, but he still walks at an impressive clip, posting a .370 OBP last season. He doesn’t strike out a whole lot either. Obviously, at 40, he won’t be coming to the MLB. However, it would have been fun to see what he could do in the MLB. His combination of tantalizing on base skills, and impressive power in a major pitcher’s park means his projections as a younger player would have been outstanding. Additionally, he has aged very gracefully, still being one of the better hitters in the league at 40. It would have been fun to see he could have done in the MLB had he ever decided to make the jump.

10. Takashi Toritani, SS, 32, Hanshin Tigers-

Speaking of excellent on base percentages, Toritani was an international free agent this season, but returned to the Hanshin Tigers and will be eligible again next year. I think he could be an absolute steal for a team that signs him. Teams are concerned about his drop off in both average and power recently. While his power has dropped off, I don’t think it’s concerning in the context of the overall league drop. His average drop is far more concerning, but last year could have been a fluke season. Maybe not. Either way, his on base skills make up for is. Last year, he had .373 OBP despite batting only .262. He consistently maintains OBPs in the .350-.400 range. As far as coming to the MLB is concerned, he was won Gold Gloves in the NPB in the past, and is seen as a plus defensive player. His average could bounce back some, but I project him to be maybe a .270+ hitter in the MLB without much power. However, I think the on base skills will translate. I could see him putting up .340-.350 OBPs in the MLB for a few seasons. When I read profiles of him this offseason, I didn’t see any mention of the fact that he plays in Koshien. Koshien is a huge pitcher’s park, which would also suppress his numbers. The consensus was that Toritani could be had cheaply. He plays a premium defensive position, and has very good on base skills. He is 32 years old, but as a low risk contract with potential to be an above average shortstop with the bat, he could certainly be a steal for someone. With those on base numbers, and decent speed, I would have no problem handing him a leadoff spot for a few seasons. Additionally, Toritani never misses a game. He has played every inning in 398 consecutive games. A durable shortstop, with good on base skills and a projected .319 wOBA that can be had for only a few million dollars per season? Sign me up. I hope someone gives Toritani a shot to show what he could do, because he could be a fantastic bargain for a team that signs him.

Additionally, comparing Toritani to Nakajima, since he signed and has been given a starting job in the MLB, I would take Toritani’s bat in a heartbeat. He played in a park that suppresses offense, while Nakajima played in a park that inflates it. So I think their averages and power will actually come out vaguely similar, though Toritani does need a bit of bounce back for that to happen. Additionally, Nakajima strikes out more, and can’t touch Toritani in walks. I think the concerns about Toritani’s average and power are overblown, especially considering his park. He would be a valuable player for someone who took the minimal risk involved to sign him next year, when he will again be available.

In the next five, we’ve got a slew of interesting players, from former top MLB prospects Lastings Milledge and Wladimir Balentien to Oakland Athletics shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima. I will hope to take a look at them soon.

A review of the top projected players, 1-5

Well, I am by no means an expert on the NPB. I don’t know that much about most of the players, and I’m guessing that you may not either. So, I’m going to look at the players with some of the loftier projections. I might not be able to tell you in depth things like Patrick Newman can at NPB Tracker, but I will be able to fill out a bit of information. For example, a player’s age and position. A little history. If they may come to the MLB, or if they even want to. We’ll see what I can dig up.

As I go through the projections, I’m going to do my best to review he upper echelon of projected hitters. At the end, I will compile a list of players I think could be good targets for the MLB. This particular review will review the top five players.

1. Shinnosuke Abe, C, 33, Yomiuri Giants  -

Abe is absolutely the best hitter in the NPB these days, and it shows as he is rumored to be on his way to being one of the highest paid players in the history of baseball. Abe led the Giants to Japan Series championship last year, being named the Central League’s MVP in the process. Abe is not going anywhere at this point in his career, but it’s fun to speculate what he might have done in the MLB. If you look at Abe’s career numbers, it might seen like his power is down a bit, but that is just due the the NPB ball change in 2011. When I translated Hideki Matsui’s batting lines to the post ball change NPB, his 50 home run seasons dropped to 30. Abe does play in the Tokyo Dome, though, which inflates home run numbers to a moderate degree. However, his main strength is in plate discipline. Abe can walk, and not strike out. His offensive projections put him somewhere between Russell Martin and Carlos Santana last season with the bat. I have no idea how his defense is, but that offense coming from a catcher would be nothing short of fantastic. He was won Gold Gloves in the past, though Nate McLouth winning one shows how those votes can turn out. Abe will likely be starring for Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic. We may not ever see him in the MLB, but it will still be fun to watch him play.

2. Nobuhiro Matsuda, 3B, 29, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks -

Matsuda is a player who has really come into his own the past two seasons. He helped lead his team to their first championship in 2011, and was in the Pacific League MVP discussion this past season. Matsuda is a bit of a difficult player to get a read on, statistically. He hits a lot of triples. He steals a lot of bases as well, though not at a very good rate. He hit a lot of home runs two seasons ago, but not last season (he did play significantly fewer games this past season). He also seriously cut down on his strikeouts between the two years. His average and on base percentage have been on the way up for a few years now, and his slugging has been high. Particularly, he would do well in the MLB hitting all those triples, particularly if he played in a large stadium like San Diego or Seattle. There hasn’t been much discussion of him moving to the MLB to my knowledge. Though, he only turns 30 this season. With third base not being as much of an offensive position, Matsuda could provide some good value with the bat at the hot corner if his wheels hold up to allow him to continue legging out extra bases. I’m unsure of his defense, but I don’t think he’s a standout in the field. He’s a player I could see providing good value in the MLB, if he could be pried away from the NPB. But, given his stardom in Japan, and the competitiveness of his team, I don’t think it’s very likely he gets posted.

3. Tony Blanco, 1B, 32, Chunichi Dragons -

Blanco was once a highly touted prospect in the MLB. Though he has always struggled, he has a ton of power. He played for the Washington Nationals for a season, but didn’t do well in a small sample. The Chunichi Dragons picked him up after a strong season at AA Tulsa for the Colorado Rockies. Blanco hits a ton of home runs, and he does it in one of the, if not the, biggest pitchers parks in the NPB. He blasted 24 home runs for the Dragons last year. Next highest on the team had 11, and he was the only other player with double digits. His power projection is so high because the Nagoya dome is so difficult to hit home runs in, but he makes it look easy. He has some massive highlight reel blasts from his years in Japan. Also on the bright side, as Blanco has aged he has vastly improved his plate discipline. The last two seasons his K/BB ratios are far better than anything he’s done before. However, I’m not sure if the projected lines would be as accurate for former MLB players. The translation factors are derived from past NPB players making the transition, all of whom have been Japanese. They grew up playing a unique Japanese game. And I’m not sure those same factors would apply to a former MLB prospect. I think it’s just as likely, if not more likely, that Blanco would be plagued by strikeouts in an MLB return, rather than crank home runs. However, it’s fun to watch him destroy the ball when he connects.

4. Dae-Ho Lee, 1B, 30, Orix Buffaloes -

“Big Boy”, as he is called, absolutely demolished the KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) since 2006, prior to moving to Japan. He was originally a pitcher, who ended up being switched to a hitter after an injury. In 2006 he won the KBO’s Triple Crown, the second player ever to do so, while finishing second in MVP voting (behind a pitcher who won the pitcher Triple Crown) and winning a Gold Glove. In 2008 he was South Korea’s top hitter in their undefeated gold medal Olympic baseball team. In 2009, he was one of the top hitters on the South Korean silver medalist team at the World Baseball Classic. In 2010, Lee broke Korean baseball. He hit home runs in 9 games in a row, breaking the world record shared by several MLB hitters, while leading the KBO in batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and hits. This made him the first Septuple Crown winner, and probably the only one there ever will be. In 2011, Lee signed a 760 million yen (9.78 million dollar) contract with Orix. He responded by being one of the better NPB hitters in his first season there, as well as winning the home run derby over former MLB prospect Wladimir Balentien. Lee can mash with the best of them, and won multiple Gold Gloves in Korea for his fielding. He may not have the body type to be a standout defender, but he can play a decent first. Lee could conceivably see the MLB, and succeed in the MLB. Lee has power and plate discipline, and has shown the ability to turn up his game and perform against the best competition, like in the Olympics and World Baseball Classic. Plus, the contract he signed was only for two seasons, so it will run out after this season. Lee will be 31 years old then. If he has a good World Baseball Classic this year, and a good NPB season this year, look for a lot of buzz to surround the slugger. He will be young enough to have a few productive years left in his bat. If he wants it, there will probably be room for him to show what he can do at the MLB level. Personally, I would love to see how his game translates. As my projections show, I think he could do it.

5. Wily Mo Pena, OF, 31, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks -

Oh Wily Mo. Everyone’s favorite batting practice superstar, Wily Mo is plying his trade with the Hawks now. Known for his tons of strikeouts and massive, monster home runs, Wily Mo didn’t hit as many home runs as you might expect from him last season. He did strike out a ton, and hit for some good power. He also hit for a pretty decent average. There isn’t much reason to talk in depth about Pena. He’s a known quantity. He can destroy the ball when he hits it. He’s done it in the MLB, he’s done it in the minors, and he’s now doing it in Japan. He just doesn’t hit the ball enough to be an impact player. He had a couple of years where he was a slightly above average hitter in the MLB. But the strikeouts, combined with poor defense, meant he was never a particular player. Wily Mo maybe could come back the MLB and hit a little bit. It would be the same as before. I know my projections probably are not accurate for him. They weren’t meant to project the Wily Mos of the world. Whereas Blanco has shown improved plate discipline, and improved power, Pena has thus far showed neither in the NPB. There is always time for a player with Pena’s raw ability to improve, but he had his chances in the MLB. His time has passed. With Wily Mo, like so many others, you just sit back and watch the beaut when he gets a hold of one, and then let out a sigh for what could have been if that raw power was accompanied by some discipline.

Current progress

I will update this post as I go, to let any visitors know of the current status of the project. I will be presenting my findings in a conference being held on my campus in early April.

Hitters – 100%*

Park factors – Complete.

BABIP projections – Freshly finished. 100% complete.

Age and Level of Competition – Complete.

 

Pitchers – 50%

Park Factors – Complete.

Level of Competition – 50%